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Other Politics cycle 1
- Thread starter internet
- Start date
Gimme a moment while I see about the snapping and posting the notes I made when I was making sense of the wagonomics.
Okay, Smogon's bitching about file size for a simple camera pic, so I'll just transpose my notes.
Polis
LW
Me
Haruno
crab
LW
1-2 more Poli here
1-2 more Liz here
Shubaka - L
Whydon
Butter
Myzo - P(?)
Twin
Scrake
Pancake (claimed Poli)
Cancer (unvoted)
Acid
1 crab here
must be tie on total votes, not just poli votes
Polis
Me
Haruno
crab
LW
1-2 more Poli here
1-2 more Liz here
Shubaka - L
Whydon
Butter
Myzo - P(?)
Twin
Scrake
Pancake (claimed Poli)
Cancer (unvoted)
Acid
1 crab here
must be tie on total votes, not just poli votes
Also, how do Lizards play into the theory? What's your estimated breakdown of party lines on the Haruno wagon?
Please read the first post. It literally says, Crab kill first, politicians second and Lizards last. Anyone who dies before their relevant vote doesn't have their vote count. Lizards can't kill lizards, crabs can't kill crabs.
The only new thing we confirmed is, if a person would be killed by one or more factions, only the highest prio of them actaully kills the target, the rest resolve ignoring the votes on that person. So if Crabs voted and killed Haruno, the shubaka kill would have happened from the politicians, therefore it is just as possible as the reverse.
As for where Lizards stand: They either tied with the remaining two members, neither of them vote, or 1 or 2 of them voted either Haruno, shubaka or the other lizard, in all cases no additional kill would transpire. These obviously don't count shubaka since as stated, he didn't count for the Lizard lynch as he was dead by the time it'd resolve.
Also Friendly reminder, PANCAKE CAN'T BE A CRAB. Please lets not forget this. If they were shubaka couldn't die as only two crabs exist so that'd either lead to a tie or Cancerous dying, neither which happened to crabs. Also regarding pancake, can only be a Lizard if Cancerous is a Lizard(reverse is not true), as if pancake was a lizard, the only other active votes were on people who'd be dead by the time to resolve a lizard kill(only wagons were, cancerous shubaka(dead) haruno(dead) knights(only voter haruno dead)) therefore the lizard kill would have gone through, unless Cancerous was a lizard(again descriptions state both scums can't kill their own with their own kill). THEREFORE, IF A NON CANCEROUS LIZARD IS EVER REVEALED, PANCAKE IS NEVER A LIZARD.
Pancake reminds me that I'd rather have 1 person each night vote someone alone, to create more of these relations, they are very useful.
SO HERE IS THE SITUATION. I want votes on only 2 people, no one else, except by one person discussed later. These two lynch targets will be selected from the pool of lw, knights, whydon, bt, twin, myzozoa. These numbers are guaranteed to house at least one Crab, and are statistically likely to have a Lizard. Now why keep votes on only two people. Easy, we need big votes, and low chance for scum to cause a mass 1 vote tie, that is massmurder and suicide with our own damn kill. Now the proposal is that one single vote on a single person will be allowed, I propose Knights to do this vote for a single reason, it statistically benefits me if it ends up cleaning him. for anyone worried that both me and Knights are Crabs, do not fret, Crabs kill goes first, if both of us vote on different targets, and we both are crabs, no Crab kill can happen and since it's first prio it will always use all active votes. Basically I just want to satisfy people who suspect it might be one of us by putting one of us to the test. Frankly I wanna lunch Twin and myzozoa, both who jumped on the wagon of Haruno at the end of it all with little reason provided at the time, and bad guys WANT to hide on the big vote.
Therefore I shall Vote myzozoa for the moment
The only new thing we confirmed is, if a person would be killed by one or more factions, only the highest prio of them actaully kills the target, the rest resolve ignoring the votes on that person. So if Crabs voted and killed Haruno, the shubaka kill would have happened from the politicians, therefore it is just as possible as the reverse.
As for where Lizards stand: They either tied with the remaining two members, neither of them vote, or 1 or 2 of them voted either Haruno, shubaka or the other lizard, in all cases no additional kill would transpire. These obviously don't count shubaka since as stated, he didn't count for the Lizard lynch as he was dead by the time it'd resolve.
Also Friendly reminder, PANCAKE CAN'T BE A CRAB. Please lets not forget this. If they were shubaka couldn't die as only two crabs exist so that'd either lead to a tie or Cancerous dying, neither which happened to crabs. Also regarding pancake, can only be a Lizard if Cancerous is a Lizard(reverse is not true), as if pancake was a lizard, the only other active votes were on people who'd be dead by the time to resolve a lizard kill(only wagons were, cancerous shubaka(dead) haruno(dead) knights(only voter haruno dead)) therefore the lizard kill would have gone through, unless Cancerous was a lizard(again descriptions state both scums can't kill their own with their own kill). THEREFORE, IF A NON CANCEROUS LIZARD IS EVER REVEALED, PANCAKE IS NEVER A LIZARD.
Pancake reminds me that I'd rather have 1 person each night vote someone alone, to create more of these relations, they are very useful.
SO HERE IS THE SITUATION. I want votes on only 2 people, no one else, except by one person discussed later. These two lynch targets will be selected from the pool of lw, knights, whydon, bt, twin, myzozoa. These numbers are guaranteed to house at least one Crab, and are statistically likely to have a Lizard. Now why keep votes on only two people. Easy, we need big votes, and low chance for scum to cause a mass 1 vote tie, that is massmurder and suicide with our own damn kill. Now the proposal is that one single vote on a single person will be allowed, I propose Knights to do this vote for a single reason, it statistically benefits me if it ends up cleaning him. for anyone worried that both me and Knights are Crabs, do not fret, Crabs kill goes first, if both of us vote on different targets, and we both are crabs, no Crab kill can happen and since it's first prio it will always use all active votes. Basically I just want to satisfy people who suspect it might be one of us by putting one of us to the test. Frankly I wanna lunch Twin and myzozoa, both who jumped on the wagon of Haruno at the end of it all with little reason provided at the time, and bad guys WANT to hide on the big vote.
Therefore I shall Vote myzozoa for the moment
ok actually that is interesting, do we know the order of the deaths? is that supposed to be information we are given? im guessing not.
btw the plural of fam is squad. just so you know Haruno
unvote
now i think it would be wise to assess LW's claim that it is just as likely that LW or KoC is a crab//pol as the 4 in the group that voted haruno.
reviewing the vote count from the last cycle:
so:
1. if only 1 of lw and knights is a crab, then that means one of scrake, acidphoenix, cancerous is a crab.
if both are crab... not much to be said here
2. suppose neither lw and knights are crabs, then at least 1/4 of whydon, bt, twin, and myzozoa is a crab. and/or as many as 2/4 of them could be lizardmen (as shubaku is dead).
also we are stuck on a tie with 1 vote cast on a bunch of people. seems random n bad.
edit: nvm lets just bandwagon me lol
btw the plural of fam is squad. just so you know Haruno
unvote
now i think it would be wise to assess LW's claim that it is just as likely that LW or KoC is a crab//pol as the 4 in the group that voted haruno.
reviewing the vote count from the last cycle:
in the first place someone should check that this is an accurate vote count.
so:
1. if only 1 of lw and knights is a crab, then that means one of scrake, acidphoenix, cancerous is a crab.
if both are crab... not much to be said here
2. suppose neither lw and knights are crabs, then at least 1/4 of whydon, bt, twin, and myzozoa is a crab. and/or as many as 2/4 of them could be lizardmen (as shubaku is dead).
edit: nvm lets just bandwagon me lol
Last edited:
Okay, 159 seems far less like flailing than previous posts. I'd still like to get WoM on kill order, though, since I've learned by experience/hindsight that leaving queries private doesn't help with scumhunting.
unvote
There goes my chance to bait a lizard by leaving pancake in the 1 crab here group.
unvote
There goes my chance to bait a lizard by leaving pancake in the 1 crab here group.
Don't think I'd vote Twin today. I'm getting a Poli vibe from his voting patterns. Myzo I already made my stance on.
I'm a bit too wrapped up in gut vs head to read pre-159 Light. Gut says winespill potential, head says there's some similarity in my own D2 play and I need to take care to avoid hipocrisy.
Whydon and Butter I'm not sure about. I'll need to ISO them.
I'm a bit too wrapped up in gut vs head to read pre-159 Light. Gut says winespill potential, head says there's some similarity in my own D2 play and I need to take care to avoid hipocrisy.
Whydon and Butter I'm not sure about. I'll need to ISO them.
Which point, because the one about 1 of knights/me OR 1 of zoa/whydon/twin/BT is misleading. What it really is is 1 out of 6 is guaranteed Crab me/knights/zoa/whydon/twin/BT. The other crabs is 1 of 8, with only you and the whoever the first crab is not being a a possible second crab.
Haven't ISO'd Butter or Whydon yet, but both have things I don't like about them.
With Whydon it's the "if not the first" part of his defense in 110. Whydon wasn't the first, and being second to Shubaka doesn't look very favorable. When you follow a Lizard onto a wagon, of course I'm going to look more closely at a throwaway line about sheeping. The only thing working for him in this case is the vote came with plausible reasoning.
And then there's Butter. Drops in, drops a vote, drops out. Gives "Gut choice" as his reasoning the second time around. It would probably seem innocuous if he hadn't ignored the A vs B while dropping his D2 vote. Comes out of nowhere to vote someone outside the D1 lynch wagons without paying attention to the current wagons.
Poli playing poorly or Lizard/Crab trying to be sneaky... I think "just needed to vote" is more consistent with the latter.
vote ButteredToast
With Whydon it's the "if not the first" part of his defense in 110. Whydon wasn't the first, and being second to Shubaka doesn't look very favorable. When you follow a Lizard onto a wagon, of course I'm going to look more closely at a throwaway line about sheeping. The only thing working for him in this case is the vote came with plausible reasoning.
And then there's Butter. Drops in, drops a vote, drops out. Gives "Gut choice" as his reasoning the second time around. It would probably seem innocuous if he hadn't ignored the A vs B while dropping his D2 vote. Comes out of nowhere to vote someone outside the D1 lynch wagons without paying attention to the current wagons.
Poli playing poorly or Lizard/Crab trying to be sneaky... I think "just needed to vote" is more consistent with the latter.
vote ButteredToast
ah fing koc, i swear im not trying to follow KoC, mainly because i dislike the way i feel he is a super enabler of wine, but w.e, it is NOC mafia, f this idle game if I get lynched tomorrow.
Anyway, I was going to basically post that to me:
the best targets are everyone except KoC, he seems like a naive town, helpless in a NOC meta of idlers, no choice but to enable LW's wifom (ive been looking up mafia terms to be able to read KoC's posts), LW feels like a crab to me, but not really enough evidence to vote for.
I hate the whole wifom concept it ruins the very idea of analyzing ppl's posts.
i swear im not trying to copy noc or start a lynch on the silent idlers to deflect, but i feel like we are reasonably far from the scum having any type of reasonable expectation of controlling the lynch so we might as well press those users.
whydon, bt, and imo maybe in the omgus spirit, that twin is also kind of too quiet to just be given a pass, and look at lw conveniently following him on his pick (me) of who to lynch. it's a nice set-up.
basically if koc is scum gj, the pols are quiet enough that we're not gonna know without seeing another vote.
i hope the deadline isn't going to be extended mainly because I would probs change my vote to BT or whydon.
for now im going to vote bt because i dont want to lose another pol, i.e, myself. id totally change to whydon, twin, or lw.
vote bt
once again wanting to say that i hope mods can post clarifications abt various claims and questions posters have had recently:
most urgently, can you please not deadline soon, like Im hoping for a post that says 'deadline is extended 24-48 hours and here is some info' im not trying to make demands on the mods cause i know yall are busy and probably feeling a bit apathetic because idling in this game, I'm only trying to inform you of all my hopes and dreams.
Anyway, I was going to basically post that to me:
the best targets are everyone except KoC, he seems like a naive town, helpless in a NOC meta of idlers, no choice but to enable LW's wifom (ive been looking up mafia terms to be able to read KoC's posts), LW feels like a crab to me, but not really enough evidence to vote for.
I hate the whole wifom concept it ruins the very idea of analyzing ppl's posts.
i swear im not trying to copy noc or start a lynch on the silent idlers to deflect, but i feel like we are reasonably far from the scum having any type of reasonable expectation of controlling the lynch so we might as well press those users.
whydon, bt, and imo maybe in the omgus spirit, that twin is also kind of too quiet to just be given a pass, and look at lw conveniently following him on his pick (me) of who to lynch. it's a nice set-up.
basically if koc is scum gj, the pols are quiet enough that we're not gonna know without seeing another vote.
i hope the deadline isn't going to be extended mainly because I would probs change my vote to BT or whydon.
for now im going to vote bt because i dont want to lose another pol, i.e, myself. id totally change to whydon, twin, or lw.
vote bt
once again wanting to say that i hope mods can post clarifications abt various claims and questions posters have had recently:
most urgently, can you please not deadline soon, like Im hoping for a post that says 'deadline is extended 24-48 hours and here is some info' im not trying to make demands on the mods cause i know yall are busy and probably feeling a bit apathetic because idling in this game, I'm only trying to inform you of all my hopes and dreams.
Due to extraneous circumstances, Internet will be unavailable for a while.
Due to this, Deadline has been moved to 4 PM EST, 4/28/17.
Due to this, Deadline has been moved to 4 PM EST, 4/28/17.
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
I'm just here to help gamesolve with votes tbh
Confirmed the votecount myself, if any of you have doubts, LW's count is accurate. Don't trust me, triple check it yourself. It's fine
Currently compiling ALL the possibilities based on last cycle's vote. May still be very wide, but it'll at least help to have the visualization. Scum simply acting like a Poli won't help them if we manage to gamesolve before we're all dead, so that's how i intend to spend my time
Confirmed the votecount myself, if any of you have doubts, LW's count is accurate. Don't trust me, triple check it yourself. It's fine
Currently compiling ALL the possibilities based on last cycle's vote. May still be very wide, but it'll at least help to have the visualization. Scum simply acting like a Poli won't help them if we manage to gamesolve before we're all dead, so that's how i intend to spend my time
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
Well damn, more's already been laid out than i thought. For anyone who still needs to have everything clarified though, i'll nicely format it out for you
Due to the two deaths being a Poli and Lizard, and the way lynches are assumed to work based on the host's claims, the Crab and Poli kills went through, and the Lizard kill failed. Which kill is which is a mystery.
Crabs are either any two of Lightwolf/Knights/Scrake/acid (if they killed shubaka), OR Whydon/BT/twin/Myzo/Scrake/acid (if they killed Haruno)
Removed myself above simply because i know myself to be Poli
pancake fmpov is clear. The only world where pancake is possibly not Poli is where we're Lizard partners, since that's the only way pancake could be a Lizard, since otherwise i would've died given Lizard is last on the kill priority, so all the votes on Haruno and shubaka are already voided, leaving pancake's vote the only one left as Haruno died. Lizards cannot kill Lizards (OP under the Lizard kill: "the crab or poli with the most votes")
As such, pancake and I are either both Lizards, or pancake is clear. I know i'm a Poli, so as such pancake is clear
Due to the two deaths being a Poli and Lizard, and the way lynches are assumed to work based on the host's claims, the Crab and Poli kills went through, and the Lizard kill failed. Which kill is which is a mystery.
Crabs are either any two of Lightwolf/Knights/Scrake/acid (if they killed shubaka), OR Whydon/BT/twin/Myzo/Scrake/acid (if they killed Haruno)
Removed myself above simply because i know myself to be Poli
pancake fmpov is clear. The only world where pancake is possibly not Poli is where we're Lizard partners, since that's the only way pancake could be a Lizard, since otherwise i would've died given Lizard is last on the kill priority, so all the votes on Haruno and shubaka are already voided, leaving pancake's vote the only one left as Haruno died. Lizards cannot kill Lizards (OP under the Lizard kill: "the crab or poli with the most votes")
As such, pancake and I are either both Lizards, or pancake is clear. I know i'm a Poli, so as such pancake is clear
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
And only now do i realize this is all the obvious shit. And it's all we know so far... man i need sleep. Will see if i can generate some reads or a plan tomorrow. If our current plan works i'm following it
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
...fucking hell this is dead. Have a votecount I guess
Cancerous/Me(1)- BT
Myzo(2)- twin, lw
Lw(1)- pancake
Bt(2)- Knights, Myzo
This... is shit. Though I guess our vote plan is between Myzo and BT? If it isn't followed that's an immediate fos, there's seriously no reason not to, and voting elsewhere is simply self preservation. Place your vote on either Myzo or BT, hope for the best, hell flip a coin if you have to.
Lynch ButteredToast
Cancerous/Me(1)- BT
Myzo(2)- twin, lw
Lw(1)- pancake
Bt(2)- Knights, Myzo
This... is shit. Though I guess our vote plan is between Myzo and BT? If it isn't followed that's an immediate fos, there's seriously no reason not to, and voting elsewhere is simply self preservation. Place your vote on either Myzo or BT, hope for the best, hell flip a coin if you have to.
Lynch ButteredToast
yeah this is dead and looking over it again you're right myzo's point does not confirm lw / knights so yeah, I kinad misread it
unlynch lw lynch BT first lynch day 2 because I didn't like the way he was playing in my town-meta of him and now he is also likely to be scum probability wise (I think???)
unlynch lw lynch BT first lynch day 2 because I didn't like the way he was playing in my town-meta of him and now he is also likely to be scum probability wise (I think???)
In case you all haven't noticed, Deadline.
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
Wow Lizards got fucked
Anyway that completely confirms now that pancake is clear
Anyway that completely confirms now that pancake is clear