Other Politics cycle 1

[Wayan Vistar]

We now know for a fact that the lizard kill first cycle failed because it was already the Poli vote anyway. Not that this piece of info is especially important, but it helps out a little knowing the exact reasoning
'
C1 Votecount:
Haruno(5)- shub(dead liz), Whydon, bt(dead liz), twin, myzo(dead liz)
shubaka(2)- lw, Knights
Me(1)- pancake
Knights(1)- Haruno(dead poli)
No Vote- Scrake, Me, acid

C2 Votecount:
Bt(4)- Knights, Myzo(dead liz), Me, Pancake
Myzo(2)- twin, lw
Me(1)- BT(dead liz)
No Vote- Whydon, Scrake, acid
Why was Cancerous a higher priority sub than Scrake or acid, who have posted next to nothing :thinking:

From C1 we determined that crabs were either Lw/Knights+Knights/Lw/Scrake/acid, or Whydon/twin+twin/Whydon/Scrake/acid. I made the realization it couldn't be ANY two after making my post, because if it was two of the idlers, how did the Crab kill go through?

Now we take C2 into consideration. BT and Myzo(both liz), ended up dead. From this we can see that Knights and Lw are NOT Crab Partners, though the possibility of either of them being crab is still there. twin+Whydon could still potentially be Crab partners as well, and any of the other possible crabs could be partnered with one of our idler friends Scrake or acid

To format it nicer, Crabs are either
Knights/Lw+Scrake/acid
OR
twin/Whydon+Whydon/twin/Scrake/acid

I say we flip one of Knights/Lw/twin/Whydon to solve which of these scenarios it is

 

[pancake]

bop lizards lol

also I'm clear shoutouts flyhn for figuring that out, I'm asking for claims from everyone before I claim!!!!!

internet can you hit us up with that masstag so everyone sees I want them to claim!

 

[Wayan Vistar]

Ima just Vote thetwinmasters first. I haven't seen too much from him or Whydon. We shouldn't split our vote as Knights/Lw vs twin/whydon, because we're guaranteed 100% to hit at least one townie that way

 

[Wayan Vistar]

Oh, claims? Guessing you mean rolenames since this is a roleless game :P. Hwang Kyo-ahn

 

[internet]

Walrein

KnightsofCydonia

Whydon

pancake

Scrake

Cancerous

LightWolf

acidphoenix

EDIT: accidentally highlighted users who subbed out my bad.

 

[Panic Station]

We're in a position where Crabs are outnumbered 3:1. I think we won't hurt ourselves too much by providing our names. I'm Gary Johnson and I was really hoping I would go through this game without ever playing like Gary Johnson.

A few thoughts here:

Flyhn's proven quite competent and concise in running the numbers.

Curious if it would be easier and/or less disadvantageous to Polis if I were to get cleaned by lynch now.

I agree with Flyhn's point on subs, but I'm wondering if we should let one of the absentees stay absent and forcesub the other for the sake of wagonomics. Making the forcesub vote outside of the majority wagon and seeing how it affects the results would potentially solve the Scrake vs Acid. This plan needs a few more details included and/or tweaked, such as who the minority wagon would be, would letting the forcesub vote naturally be better/worse, and anything that could be done to make it more painless for Polis. I'd like to hear feedback from this idea from multiple players before we even consider implementing it.

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Thomas Jefferson

 

[LightWolf]

Can I suggest one thing, lets FIX the suspect combo list.

Crabs are either
LW+Scrake/acid I'm proven to be not Crabs with either Twin or Knights, day 2 makes this the only viable combo for me
OR
Knights+Scrake/acid/Flyhn Two of the non voters he could non voted again, the 3rd one Flyhn now voted with him, all three are still options.
OR
twin+Whydon/Scrake/acid Twin voted opposite of Flyhn, ca'n't be Crabs with him
OR
Whydon+twin/Flyhn Flyhn and Whydon switched position between days, therefore both still can be crabs, unlike Scrake and acid both who didn't vote last day along with Whydon
OR
Scrake/acid+twin/LW/Knights Just a summary of what eve can see above
OR
Flyhn+Whydon/Knights Same

Also pancake, I'm hurt, I spent last day shouting you can't be crabs.

My suggestion is, two votes, one with more than the other(so we force Crab to trigger, rather than being unsure if both died because of politician tie or Crabs killed and didn't tie). Logically I'd suggest two who will clean someone(Kill Whydon and Knights, Flyhn is clean if neither is Crabs, if either IS crabs Knights would reduce possible crab to 3, Whydon to 2, split lynch to discover the most in case only one lynch happens because Crabs tied.)

Now the option for the double lynch are:
-Scrake and acid, if both good cleans me BUT it's essentially LYLO(4v2, it's Flyhn+Whydon/Knights or Whydon+Flyhn/twin, force a lynch on both Flyhn and Whydon, as at least one is always crab, leaves 3v1(or it can insta win), if Flyhn was bad it's Knights, if Whydon was bad it's twin, lynch correct one, GUARANTEED WIN), if either bad reduces options to LW/Knights/Twin and cleans Whydon and Flyhn leaving a 5v1, and all 3 can be lynched(have every suspect vote another suspect and put 1 on the rest, even if the crab guy unvotes and votes on the person voting him, which kills the guy with still two votes and the clean voting the crab leaving 3v1 ASSURED VICTORY)

-twin and Flyhn, Cleans Whydon(Scrake/acid+Knights/LW, force double on either, leading to 3v1, here we put two votes on both, force the two suspects to vote each other, only way scum can affect the lynch is by unvoting and voting someone voting him in a stealth vote, this leads to 1 dead poli, and 1 vote on both suspects, still killing him and leaving one poli alive GUARANTEED VICTORY) OR leaves Whydon/Knights if Flyhn was bad(guaranteed victory, lynch both without either voting, Crab will still die even if they vote the Poli) or Whydon/Scrake/acid if twin was bad(same situation as in the previous option(where we lynch Scrake and acid today), leads to an eventual ASSURED WIN)

-Whydon and Knights, Cleans Flyhn(it's twin/LW+acid/Scrake, same as previous double mislynch result, ergo SUREFIRE WIN) OR if Whydon was bad it's Flyhn/twin or if Knights was bad Scrake/acid/Flyhn again same results as the previous times such combos came up, both resulting in SUREFIRE VICTORY


So basically call the game, or we go through with the safest options, which in my opinion is to LYNCH SCRAKE AND ACID(note isn't bolded, just a big font), this way no idlers can screw with that plan down the line, also there is literally only no crab guy between them if I'm clean ergo I have no reason to force a mislynch on them. Please run through my logic everyone so we can win this election.

 

[Panic Station]

I'm usually loathe to vote an empty slot (or close enough), but k.i.s.s.ing the issue of absentees might be better than going at it tangentially.

However, I propose an addendum: we have one player RNG the wagon and we let things take off from there. I'm tempted to nominate Flyhn for this, since he's the only player who can't be partners with Scrake or Acid as outlined by the wagonomics above. If anyone has a better nomination, speak up.

 

[Panic Station]

To clarify, one player RNGs between Scrake and Acid, with documentation provided to show the process was done impartially.

 

[LightWolf]

We are lynching both, with a tie, where everyone votes(In this case everyone except the idlers). The only way scum can affect this is if they manage to stealth reveal themselves. and I mean themselves, or else they do nothing but keep one of the two alive, unless that one of the two is the other crab and didn't vote and 2 poli die(in every other case the crab kill fails, and there is only one death). This doesn't really change the game winning plan as either both are outed(2 villagers die, we can lynch them one by one and win, same result as lynching two innocent anyways) or one revealed themself(one of Scrake/acid dead, one scum revealed 5v2, lynch revealed, 5v1 because other crab would need to reveal to make kill happen OR alive one from Scrake and acid is bad and we lead to 4v2 with both still revealed as only non voters can cause such a situation, which we would make Scrake and acid, leading to any of the 4v2 situations, except we know both scum)

So yeah we aren't lynching either or, we lynch both from one of the combos. This is non negotiable unless there is a flaw in my logic(but since the suggested pair here is the one that is only a total mislynch if I'm clear, I'd say it's safe to say I'm either scum saccing my buddy which is win for you, or clean in which case there is no reason to doubt my intent.

 

[Panic Station]

In a scenario where Scrake and Acid btoh flip Poli, how would we determine whether Crabs jumped a single wagon or split up and let the Polis take the tie?

 

[Panic Station]

Can the potential outcomes be extrapolated ahead of time, based on current wagonomics? Foolproof is only well and good if the scum are truly cornered.

 

[LightWolf]

-Scrake and acid, if both good cleans me BUT it's essentially LYLO(4v2, it's Flyhn+Whydon/Knights or Whydon+Flyhn/twin, force a lynch on both Flyhn and Whydon, as at least one is always crab, leaves 3v1(or it can insta win), if Flyhn was bad it's Knights, if Whydon was bad it's twin, lynch correct one, GUARANTEED WIN)

I already answered the case in which they are both poli, it's the most straight forward win, because we will actually determine who is the final Crab 100%

Also it doesn't matter who the crabs vote if they tie or not, the thing that determines results come that is what people die as, we have the superior numbers with a single loss and a whole faction eliminated that we can just brute force the lynches. Again read my plan and explanations and how the game would go in each possible result. If you can't find any fringe case where lynching Scarke and acid would lose us the game, there is no reason not to double them.

 

[LightWolf]

You guuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuys.

 

[Panic Station]

If you can get Flyhn to play ball, good. Otherwise he's got the majority wagon parked elsewhere.

Word to the wise: never trust a fast food chicken dinner with watery gravy. Going back to bed.

 

[LightWolf]

Only reason not to trust is being crabs. If my logic is flawed then find the flaw.

 

[Wayan Vistar]

Unvote

I enjoy the plan of voting between the idlers actually, since if both flip Poli that's gamesolve right there with twin+Whydon, and if not, then that means we kill a crab anyway

Coinflip says.. Lynch Scrake

 

[LightWolf]

To speed this along

ME and Whydon and Knights vote acid
Flynn twin and pancake vote Scrake

I don't want anyone straying from this because that is thea only way, mafia beats us.

Vote acidphoenix

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Vote scrake

 

[Panic Station]

Vote Acid

 

[Thetwinmasters]

you are supposed to vote acid

 

[LightWolf]

Paging Dr pancake please vote, I repeat paging Dr pancake CHD(Clean HD) to vote Scrake.

 

[pancake]

vote Scrake

 

[LightWolf]

Hey internet when is deadline?

ALSO SCRAKE AND ACIDPHOENIX. PLEASE DON'T VOTE. If you are villager read my plan, this assures our victory. If you vote we will lynch you under the assumption you are scum should you not unvote when asked to. You have been warned.