Smogon Snake Draft I - Phase 3

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teal6

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teal6's "6 days to go" playoff prediction

(teams will be reviewed bottom up from current standings)

10. ambrette astrotias
250/1
the team w/ a name most everyone can't spell is in a pretty rough spot. with a .500 first phase they seemed to be in alright positioning to make it to playoffs, but a disastrous 2nd phase kinda sunk them, with 11 wins being the worst amongst all 20 completed phases so far. phase 3 has gotten off to a tepid 0-1, but the beauty of this format and our playerbases natural tendencies to delay playing mean that with a bit of magic anything is possible, but it'll be a hard climb for bkc and the boys realistically.

thimos season has been standout with a great performance so far for a late pick, glad to see him perform well.


9. the TDKs (sidewinders)
175/1
i think most everyone will agree this is a team that underperformed relative to the reputation. a good managerial pair and some heavy hitters in blunder, ojama and posho mean that i would have had them pegged for a playoff spot or thereabouts at the start of the season. unfortunately two negative phases and a 1-2 start to the third have them looking a bit suspect, sitting at 28 wins, they'll likely need a monster run to be in contention, the likes of which we just haven't seen yet from these guys. i wouldn't fully count them out but it's looking fairly grim.

it'd be dishonest not to point out the coincidence of the team's best and worst performances, with 49 being a late pick (9) with an impeccable 5-0 and kaori/samvgc being a relatively early pick (4) and putting up an out-of-form 0-8. one hopes that sam can pull it together, i know how bad going winless feels(wcop), but from a managerial perspective it's tough when one of your nailed on starters isn't performing.


8.goldrenrod gliders (the cieles)
163/1
the gliders are another team with what you would consider "inverted" results. that is - 11th pick z0m and 12th pick (trade) psychicmewtwo are putting up better numbers than the rest of the team. while im sure ciele is happy about that, the relatively average results of the rest of the squad might have him panicking that this is the first time he doesn't make playoffs while managing a team tour. phase 2 improved to a .500 record, but that's not much to write home about when it comes to securing a playoff spot.

first round pick pearl has subbed out, citing fatigue, ending his regular season campaign at 3-4, admittedly (by himself) a below-par record for a 1st round pick. i think if this team has playoff hopes they're going to be relying on their late-round starlets to keep overperforming (go z0m!!) while waiting for the early round picks to pick up the pace a bit.


7. the taipans
500/1
its kind of a shame that the team to early-rush phase three has had such disappointing results. with a nearly .500 record going into phase three, the taipans certainly could have done it, but if i were a betting man (well i am but thats not the phrase) i would put money on them not making playoffs. a 2-8 start is hard to come back from in a momentum sense, and with only 20 games left to not only make up for these initial 8 losses but also ascend past two middling phases, the taipans have a hell of an effort in front of them.

i love anti and cbb but i dont think either are the most comfortable in "back against the wall" positions, with both being "win more" types - that is, when they are in first place or high up, they will be able to motivate and cement their position in a way that other managers may not. this weakness will likely cost them going down the stretch, as mental stability and fortitude is going to be a necessity to pull the season up from the dregs. unfortunately at this time i cannot see this happening.

zorodarks run continues to impress with a hefty 7-0 keeping the team afloat, but barely. unfortunately for the managerial duo they've got to deal with the loss of first round pick shake due to quitting (bye bye - kyou fyubashi orwhatever) as well as the unfortunate luck inflicted upon some of their promising members, like p2. looking back at it that one robbery really must have hurt him - though i commend him for not raging thereafter.


6. nagas / the hikaris
8/1
this is an interesting and fairly polarizing team. sitting midtable, their season has been one big contrast so far, with a disastrous first round followed by a dominant second round. it's hard to say which nagas we will see this time around, there's really no good indicators and if you told me at the end of the week they went 12-18 or 18-12, i'd be ready to believe either. all that said, this team has a decent platform for a playoff position - a lot of it requires hikari to implement a proper "us against the world" mentality to keep his players motivated and running hot. the recent bannings of two of their players can actually help in this sense - both mazar and steve were putting up pretty disappointing results (1-2, 0-3, respectively) so it's not like they were really kicking ass and taking names, yet hikari can use this to make the team bond. should he accomplish this i can see the nagas making playoffs.

miltankmilk's performance is above and beyond what is expected of an 8th pick, so even if he lost his last he'll have had a good tournament indeed. i do have to wonder about the sanity of not starting Alexander (though he has indeed been subbed in) as he's likely the team's best OUer overall, and when you're such a "blow with the wind" sort of team it's probably best to roll the dice at the end. im glad to see Alex back in and expect him to pick up some key wins for Hikari.


5. the hoggs / rattlers
6/1
more or less the sister team to the hikaris, their records mirror one another in almost every way. coincidentally, they're going to be fighting for that coveted fourth spot with one another, so it'll be interesting to see who pulls ahead of who, with exactly identical phase performance so far (taking into account the stripped GOAO win). the hoggs were awarded a chance to pick up an additional phase 2 win with the dundies recreate in a controversial decision - one i'm still not TOTALLY sure where i stand on, but thank god my badge is grey so i dont have to worry about this anymore lol. that extra game could prove vital to their efforts for playoffs as they're legitimately neck and neck with the nagas in every way right now.

in turn, the hoggs have to be riding a wave of momentum going into phase three, but a 2-2 start isn't the one that they would've wanted as they look to close the gap. interestingly some of their later picks are keeping the team in contention, but it's a pretty flat distribution of who is carrying who in this team. bro kappa in particular looks to have been a great value pick and i'll see at the end of the week where he ends up, but it could very easily be 7-2 for a 7th round draft.


4. the bigs
5/1
somehow transferring from SPL to SSD, we see the return of the bigs starting at the currently-in-playoff spots. with 12 games played already in phase 3 (next up is 10, then 6, then 4, i think) they are certainly attempting to take the lead and hold it. will that happen, it's tough to say - if i had to guess, i think they will drop out of the PO spots by the end of sunday to either the hoggs or the hikaris. that said, it wouldn't be outlandish for them to keep their fourth place finish that they currently occupy.

the distribution of wins and performance looks a bit more like what you'd expect on the bigs's side, with 3rd round pick tamahome coolly taking home 7 wins with one game left to play. first rounder flcl has been a bit polarizing, going from 3-0 to 0-3, but it's foolish to count a player as talented as him out - though one will have to hope that the recent grand slam upset hasn't shaken him. finch's conquering start has petered out with two back to back losses, and it's still a question as to whether he'll be able to pull himself together for the big finish.

i'll be controversial here and say out of the previous three teams i expect one of them to end in 4th place in the following order: the hoggs -> the hikaris -> the bigs. maybe this prediction will be enough to motivate the rest of the bigs to outperform my expectations and impove on their 7-5 record (as i write) to finish the phase and regular season strongly.


3. the dunks
1/1
speaking realistically three teams have outperformed the rest this season and have looked fairly comfortable in the top spots since this tour has started. the dunks (obii/dodmen) are one of these big three, and i am certain that they will finish in the playoff spots. a commanding start to phase 3 shows that they're not planning on slowing down, with 4 back to back wins putting them in first for what's been played so far.

the dunks have an incredibly even distribution of wins overall, while the tiez takes first place with 6, it's pretty smooth all the way down. to me this speaks volumes about their playoff ability - they can count on pretty much anyone to win. with experienced manager and legendary player mdragon on the squad i can see the team being in top, top form come the final two weeks when each game counts even more than it does now. i would not count this team out for the championship spot.


2. the pacifidlog powerrangers
1/1
my team, but i'll be as objective as i can

the pitvipers have been in a solid 1st or 2nd pretty much since the second saturday of the season, mirroring records with the ABRs the entire time. in a very realistic sense i do not see us failing to close out playoffs after a brutal first phase where we claimed 19 wins. in our second phase we accomplished a .500 record, but what was notable about the finish was that we were down for quite a bit of it - motivation and preparation came into play late to even out the score and increase the momentum of the team. being inside the squad i say the team has a strong championship mentality.

its hard to talk about individual player performance without mentioning axel, who, despite some bad luck, is 1-5. i think that axel will be able to pull it together in playoffs and perform to a high level. as the only team to give every single player a chance, we are seeing some new OUers this phase, like BTB who has started his record off with a 1-0. meeps lacus and ajna carry a bit now with 6,6,5 wins respectively, while even the negative players have a decent share of contribution, myself going 3-4 so far. without too polarizing performances i think we are fairly similar to the dunks, a team where realistically any given player can win any given game, and hope that we will carry this momentum and mentality into the playoffs.


1. the ABRs
1/2
our sister team, the ABRs, has matched us every round so far more or less. i think that they'll finish first or second most likely, with acclaimed manager tony continuing to keep his players focused and their heads turned towards closing the season out. i realitically do not think there is any chance that they finish lower than 3rd by any means, having had a 19-11 run in the first phase and starting off the third with strong performances.

led by ABR, one of the few first round picks to live up to the hype, the team has a good foothold for playoffs. managerial finesse on tonyflygons part freed up fan favorite omfuga to continue playing through the rest of this tournament, which will certainly be a huge boon as he likely returns to form following his second phase where he was given all of 20 minutes to prep for his opponents in a tier he didn't want to play. player-wise there's not a ton more to talk about on this team as everyone is performing about as expected, with only Yui having a really disappointing run so far, but it's not out-of-the-ordinary for a 13th round pick not to do too well, and truthfully that's the sort of gamble i think a manager can be lauded for making.


ask the experts:

ABR:
1. Bushmasters
2. Pitvipers
3. Serpents
4. Leviathans

Get Backer:
1. Bushmasters
2. Pitvipers
3. Serpents
4. Leviathans

teal6:
1. Bushmasters
2. Pitvipers
3. Serpents
4. Rattlers
 
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Poek

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2. the pacifidlog powerrangers

as the only team to give every single player a chance, we are seeing some new OUers this phase,
like BTB who has started his record off with a 1-0. meeps lacus and ajna carry a bit now with 6,6,5 wins respectively, while even the negative players have a decent share of contribution, myself going 3-4 so far. without too polarizing performances i think we are fairly similar to the dunks, a team where realistically any given player can win any given game, and hope that we will carry this momentum and mentality into the playoffs.
Learned from the best.

 
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