Are they only suspect when they don't fit your narrative? There is an ample conservative Latino base and the original post you quoted aged like milk.
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Serious The Politics Thread
- Thread starter Oglemi
- Start date
Benny Gantz is hardly some diplomatically minded pro-Palestinian person. I promise you no amenable TSS will come under a potential government in the current Israeli climate. The days of returning to something like the Oslo Accords is over
This is not true at all. US aid and especially US veto power at the UN is incredibly valuable to Israel. I don't get this
Yes, the sheer scale and brutality of this current and the role of social media have gotten a lot more people invested in this than previously. Public opinion is absolutely shifting in favor of Palestinains. This obviously is different from previous flareups
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Narrative that is actual voting results? Republicans have not gotten more than 13% of the black vote in over 30 years. Latinx went 63-35 Biden in 2020 and 65-29 Clinton in 2016. When the polls flubbed 2022 the black vote was 86-13 Dems and Latinx was 60-39 Dems. In 2018 it was 90-9 Dems and 69-29 Dems. That is a lot of voting history. But we should not question these recent polls that say otherwise?
Groups like Tejanos and Cubans in Florida break for Repubs generally, but half the overall Latino population? Don't know if that's true
I actually would not be surprised if this is true. Biden helped to write the 1994 crime bill; he just clamped down on immigration at the US-Mexico border; and I'm sure that "you ain't black" is still in the heads of many. Without a COVID crisis boosting Biden's numbers, it won't surprise me if Trump does quite well with racial/ethnic minorities in November. Polls can be wrong, of course, and I have my doubts that Trump will secure half of the Latine vote, but I also wouldn't rule out the possibility.
1) Gantz has explicitly stated that he will leave the coalition if Netanyahu refuses to lay out a plan for governance in Gaza. It's safe to say the TSS is safe with Netanyahu out of power, it just means Hamas would not be the de-facto government, which it should never have been and only has been thanks to two decades of Likudnik support.
2) US aid isn't as valuable any more, because there are plenty of other suppliers to fill the gap, namely Germany and Israel's own industry. In fact, it's declining in usefulness so much that it's now a common position among the far-right to REJECT American arms transfers, because they want to deleverage American influence on the country's foreign policy. Israel will have no shortage of quality munitions thanks to Nazi grandchildren (I'm not even drunk now and I still say FUCK the Krauts).
3) It's not social media, it's the proliferation of bullshit media in American politics. There's still no shortage of white twentysomethings and elderly racist rock stars willing to pitch money at shit like Grayzone and TYT. Media informs and sets the public's agenda, not the other way around.
Why would you not rule it out? The polls are painting an exact contradiction to voting history. These are casted ballots, not a handful of people telling a poll what they will do. Polls are also notoriously bad at getting responses from the black and Latinx communities.
I actually understated earlier about the black vote. No Republican presidential candidate has gotten 20% or more of the black vote since the Civil Rights Act was passed sixty years ago in 1964. But Trump as a convicted felon will do it this year?
So just to reiterate:
2016: 65-29 Dem
2018: 69-29 Dem
2020: 63-35 Dem
2022: 60-39 Dem
With the exception of 2018, there's been an increase in number of Latinos voting R since 2016. I never said there was a majority of Latinos voting R, I said ample. I also don't know why you insist on pointing out the black vote when I said Latino and not minority. Lastly, it's Latino, not Latinx.
Also stop focusing on national results as if that determines the presidency.
National results do determine the presidency, as the demographics and states are all correlated. If the Latino vote really goes 50-50, Biden will get stomped in Arizona and Nevada. If the black vote is 75-25 such as in recent polls, you will see Fox News Polls showing Virginia (large black population) tied. Hence, why we should be skeptical of polls with contradictory cross tabs.
If I recall, the polls were also off in the Mexican presidential race.
If I recall, the polls were also off in the Mexican presidential race.
I don't think you're following my point so this isn't worth continuing. I'll leave you with this article showing how people under 40 would vote if the election were today. Spoiler: Trump leads Biden by 4% in Latino voters. Young people won Biden the 2020 election and if they don't show up the same way they did in 2020 this election is already over.
https://www.npr.org/2024/06/05/nx-s...gaza-inflation-abortion-trump-genforward-poll
Not going to let this go unnoticed when people are still defending the most moral army in the world which over the last 48 hours successfully killed 200 civilians, mostly children, and wounded 400 more as they blew up UN schools with US weaponry. They got 4 hostages in return, though. Huge shout out to Joe Biden on his excellent ceasefire plan that's totally going places.
https://www.democracynow.org/2024/6...sed_in_israeli_attack_on_unrwa_school_in_gaza
The polling industry as a whole has been in shambles for at least 8 years. I'm not advocating disregarding them completely, but it's not a stretch to call them suspect.