Day 1: Blank Slate made a reference to dude, prison, die to the badass, if we get what he meant. We got it, all right, so we knew the vig (hook+kill).
We believed Josh had fully revealed his list, and not hidden one, so we got the Disguise Artist wrong, but he died to us, anyway, so yay. From what Josh said and how Asek seemed to believe me (his vote spoke a lot), we named him the BG. Percival was transparent, so we used him to confirm that Josh was Merlin.
Night 1: Guessed that Josh would be identity exchanged, as that was part of the purpose of my melt. But it was not to be. Other two guesses worked out fine. Disguise Artist targeting one of us was a godsend. We also accused acidphoenix of being the Veteran and inspected him, and found him as the Identity Exchanger, which was a real help for the Ghostwheel, though not much more than that (but it was all we needed).
Day 2: Asek pubclaiming the BG revealed a lot to us, though for a time Josh had us convinced he actually wasn't Merlin - I checked the posts, and found that Haruno was the only other candidate, so until Josh was lynched, we were gonna try that.
About this time, we went over the posts and started figuring out who might be certain roles. Josh saying watcher+tracker obvious led us to trying Gronk in that role, which... well, you see how that worked. I don't know why you switched from Hitmonleet to Josh, but I figure if Josh had gone straight to a Hitmonleet lynch, ignoring Asek - after all, he had a dead Percival RIGHT THERE who had been tunneling Hitmonleet - then the game would have been a lot more even.
Good game, everyone.