Ninetales (Analysis)

Zystral

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[Overview]

<p>Though Ninetales is an average Pokemon in many respects, its access to the Drought ability gives it an important role in OU play., both by Drought is what allows Ninetales to supporting its entire team with perpetual sun and by somewhat patching up its previously lackluster offense and its rather poor defensive typing. Ninetales will take a starring role on any team wishing to exploit the sunlight, and is even quite useful on less weather-centered teams for its ability to remove the more ubiquitous sand and rain from the battlefield.</p>

[SET]
name: Specially Defensive
move 1: Flamethrower
move 2: Will-O-Wisp / Toxic
move 3: Substitute
move 4: Hidden Power Fighting / Hypnosis / Protect
Item: Leftovers
Ability: Drought
Nature: Timid
evs: 252 HP / 92 SpD / 164 Spe

[SET COMMENTS]

<p>This set sacrifices Ninetales's offensive capabilities to improve efforts to keep it alive. Ninetales's poor defensive typing leaves it weak to both parts of the EdgeQuake combination, making efforts at significant physical defensiveness shaky indeed, but with Will-O-Wisp support Ninetales can at least take neutral physical hits fairly well. Ninetales fares much better on the special side, with its Water weakness negated by Drought and its lack of vulnerabilities to other common special attacking types.</p>

<p>Flamethrower still has decent power under the sun with no investment, and with the given Speed EVs allows Ninetales to reliably revenge kill Excadrill. Will-O-Wisp lets Ninetales harass the many bulky Fire resists that switch into it and allows it to notably punish Tyranitar for starting a sandstorm and forcing Ninetales out. Substitute eases prediction for Ninetales, letting it burn Tyranitar or others safely as its Substitute is broken. Substitute also allows Ninetales to deal with Balloon Heatran more safely, managing a 3HKO with Hidden Power Fighting after Stealth Rock should Heatran switch into a Substitute. Hidden Power Fighting also gives Ninetales an attack to damage Tyranitar with in an emergency, but it is usually only suitable for finishing off an already-weakened one.</p>

<p>One may choose to use Hypnosis to shut down the many Pokemon that would otherwise wall Ninetales, but its high miss rate and the status conflict with Will-O-Wisp makes it a dubious option. Protect is another option on this set in the fourth slot to facilitate stalling with Substitutes, accumulating burn damage on the enemy while healing Ninetales with Leftovers. Beware that Protect is dangerous to use when a weather inducer has switched into Ninetales, because if they switch out on Protect Ninetales may be left facing a weather sweeper in with its sweeping weather up. With Protect and Will-O-Wisp Ninetales is also completely unable to touch Fire-types, meaning Flash Fire users especially are free to switch in to set up or try to catch boosts. Ninetales can use Toxic with Protect instead and only be entirely walled by Heatran, but it will have more trouble with physical attackers, especially Tyranitar, if it chooses this option.</p>

[ADDITIONAL COMMENTS]

<p>A Chesto Berry can be used with Rest in lieu of Substitute to get some immediate recovery for Ninetales to frustrate an opponent who is close to finishing it off. Since weather inducers predictably switch right into Ninetales upon its appearance, Ninetales will have many chances to use Rest safely and heal up. Energy Ball can be used in the fourth slot to harass bulky Waters and revenge KO Rain Dance-supported Kabutops and Omastar, but is generally less useful due to the this set's lack of offensive power. The Special Defense EVs could be put into Defense or Special Attack instead, should you want your Ninetales to take physical attacks better or hit a bit harder. In particular, if you fear Excadrill with some HP investment, or wish to 3HKO Heatran without Stealth Rock up, then you would be well advised to put those EVs into Special Attack.</p>

<p>This Ninetales is especially suited to selflessly supporting sun sweepers, especially ones that can damage other weather inducers for switching in. Since Ninetales lacks the power to punish other weather inducers itself, it relies on good hazard support to limit their switches, wearing them down over the course of the match. Conversely, its Leftovers healing and more defensive EV spread make it somewhat better at dealing with hazards than the other sets, and it is not as dependent on Rapid Spin or Wish support. Teammates with Heal Bell or Aromatherapy to wake it up from Rests are especially helpful, and Roserade and Blissey deserve special mention for the ability to both wake up Ninetales and lay Spikes and Stealth Rock respectively to sabotage other weather inducers.</p>

[SET]
name: Special Attacker
move 1: Fire Blast / Flamethrower
move 2: Will-O-Wisp
move 3: Energy Ball
move 4: Hidden Power Fighting / Hidden Power Ground / Hypnosis
Item: Life Orb / Leftovers
Ability: Drought
Nature: Timid
evs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe

[SET COMMENTS]

<p>Though it sports a mediocre Special Attack stat of 81, Ninetales is well suited to an offensive set due to the power of its Fire Blast in the sunshine. Offensive Ninetales can land powerful hits on many common tanks with Fire Blast: it is almost certain to OHKO 252/0 Gliscor, and it can manage 120/136 Conkeldurr as well with a layer of Spikes. With a Life Orb hastening Ninetales's death however, it might be unwise to use this set as the lynchpin of a heavily sun-dependent team; this version of Ninetales tends to be more useful individually, and does well supporting weather-neutral teams by overriding rain and sand while also acting as a decent artillery piece.</p>

<p>Though the presence of such an overwhelming move as sun-boosted Fire Blast makes coverage rather redundant in many situations, weather inducers such as Tyranitar and Politoed are able to ruin Ninetales's fun by switching in and taking the resisted Fire Blast as they change the weather. Energy Ball can batter both of them for better damage, and Will-O-Wisp can threaten to cripple Tyranitar on the switch or at least mitigate the impressive bulk of Politoed and Hippowdon. Hidden Power Fighting can 2HKO Balloon Heatran after Stealth Rock and at least wound Tyranitar, though one might use Hidden Power Ground instead if you wish to Speed tie Jirachi and other Ninetales or fear being walled by Chandelure. Hypnosis is an option to cripple durable special attackers, such as Latias, who like to switch into Ninetales, but if you use it over a Hidden Power then this low accuracy move will be Ninetales's only option against Heatran.</p>

[ADDITIONAL COMMENTS]

<p>A player wishing to be a bit more conservative with his Ninetales can run Leftovers on this set, but Ninetales will struggle to cripple tanks and get important KOs. In particular, Hidden Power Fighting no longer has a chance to even 2HKO Heatran, so Ninetales must be careful lest it grants Heatran a possible Flash Fire boost on the switch. When using Leftovers the consistency of Flamethrower becomes much more attractive than before, because you will miss many important OHKOs anyway.</p>

<p>A number of dangerous sun sweepers such as Venusaur and Shiftry are supported by Drought, but the less obvious advantage of negating both rain and sand along with the general individual competence of this set allows Ninetales to partner well with weather-neutral Pokemon. Fast Scarfers, Dragon Dance sweepers, and Agility users especially appreciate this weather-cancelling effect as it prevents them from being easily revenged by Excadrill. With a Life Orb, Ninetales will die quickly and appreciates Magic Bounce, Rapid Spin, and Wish support even more than usual.</p>

[SET]
name: Choice Specs
move 1: Overheat / Fire Blast
move 2: Energy Ball
move 3: Hidden Power Fighting / Hidden Power Ground
move 4: Flamethrower / Hypnosis
Item: Choice Specs
Ability: Drought
Nature: Timid
evs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe

[SET COMMENTS]

<p>Specs Ninetales should be played aggressively, predicting weather inducer switch-ins and using the appropriate move to damage them. Ninetales does well revenging slower Pokemon, threatening them with powerful Fire moves and tempting the opponent to predict and send in a weather inducer. Be wary though, since if Ninetales makes a kill with a Fire move it can easily be trapped and clobbered by Pursuit Tyranitar for large amounts of damage or even eliminated by Wobbuffet.</p>

<p>Drought, STAB, and Choice Specs together power up Ninetales's Fire attacks to nigh-unbelievable levels, making the Specs set a fearsome force. Overheat and Energy Ball are the bread and butter of the set, with Overheat threatening massive damage should the opponent not send in a resist, and Energy Ball threatening many of those resists in turn. Specs Ninetales boasts some impressive OHKOs with Overheat, such as Reuniclus, all but the very specially-bulkiest versions of Conkeldurr, and even an outside shot at Salamence after Stealth Rock damage. Hidden Power Fighting is especially good for taking pieces out of Tyranitar, but requires an imperfect Speed IV and will lose you ties with other base 100 Speed Pokemon. Hidden Power Ground on the other hand allows a perfect Speed IV but is generally less useful and can cause difficulties considering the ubiquity of Air Balloons on many Pokemon.</p>

<p>Though Choiced Hypnosis may seem questionable, on Ninetales specifically it can be quite useful; it allows Ninetales to cripple bulky Dragons such as Latias on the switch, who would otherwise counter Ninetales with impunity and set up on it. Fire Blast can be used instead of Overheat with Hypnosis if you want a repeatable and consistent Fire attack, but shouldn't be used with Flamethrower for obvious reasons.</p>

[ADDITIONAL COMMENTS]

<p>Will-O-Wisp is usually Ninetales's best support move, but it obviously has issues on the Choice set. Even so, it can be useful for wearing down specially-defensive Tyranitar, who Ninetales only has a chance to 2HKO with HP Fighting with a layer of both Stealth Rock and Spikes. Dark Pulse might seem useful for threatening Latios and Latias, but Overheat does almost as much damage in the sun, and Ninetales is immediately threatened out anyway, making Dark Pulse superfluous.</p>

<p>Both because Specs Ninetales is easy to trap, and because it requires dangerous prediction to use effectively, a team dependent on sunlight should pack a reserve Sunny Day user or two while using this Ninetales. Sunny Day Bronzong resists both Rock and Ground and is an effective counter for many sand sweepers as well. On the other hand, Chansey and Blissey with Sunny Day are very good at reining in rain teams and might be able to occasionally pass Ninetales a Wish in spite of poor synergy. Sunny Day Jirachi has a problematic Fire weakness exacerbated by the sun as well as a Ground weakness sabotaging any synergy with Ninetales, but deserves consideration due to its good mixed bulk and ability to threaten Tyranitar.</p>

[SET]
name: Nasty Plot
move 1: Nasty Plot
move 2: Fire Blast / Flamethrower
move 3: Energy Ball
move 4: Hidden Power Fighting
Item: Life Orb
Ability: Drought
Nature: Timid
evs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe

[SET COMMENTS]

<p>Nasty Plot is the ace up Ninetales's sleeve, and this set is well-suited for surprising incoming weather inducers. With hazard support, +2 Ninetales has a good chance of OHKOing Hippowdon, Politoed, or Tyranitar with Fire Blast, Energy Ball, and Hidden Power Fighting respectively, though it will be unable to deal with specially-bulky versions of Tyranitar or Politoed. If Ninetales has the weather under its sole control, then +2 Fire Blast will be quite powerful indeed, and will earn you likely OHKOs against Garchomp and Latios after Stealth Rock, as well as a 2HKO on Wish Blissey.</p>

<p>This set experiences problems when the opposing weather inducer immediately switches out to a resisting, faster Pokemon, and some very dangerous prediction with Fire Blast may be required. For example, if Tyranitar switches into Nasty Plot and Ninetales uses Hidden Power in response, Latios could switch into it taking minimal damage and threaten Ninetales out.</p>

[ADDITIONAL COMMENTS]

<p>Hidden Power Fighting is strongly preferred over Energy Ball for the increased damage on Tyranitar, but Hidden Power Ground is an acceptable alternative if you wish to tie base 100 Speed Pokemon. While it's tempting to use a Modest nature to put the hurt on specially-defensive weather inducers, it is unwise to do so because a Modest nature allows Jolly Excadrill to outspeed and easily OHKO Ninetales even in the sun.</p>

<p>Because of the shaky nature of Ninetales's KOs in a metagame infested with specially-defensive Tyranitar and Politoed, heavy hazard support is a virtual requirement for this set. A Wobbuffet to eliminate common fast Dragon switch-ins such as Specs Latios and Scarf Garchomp is also useful, as these foes will be able to switch into boosted attacks aimed at weather abusers fairly easily and threaten Ninetales out with OHKOs. Wobbuffet can also trap Scarf versions of Tyranitar and Politoed, which avoid taking boosted attacks by outspeeding Ninetales.</p>

[Other Options]

<p>Psycho Shock seems tempting but is actually fairly useless, as Fire Blast hits even targets like Blissey and Conkeldurr much harder in the sun. Dark Pulse is theoretically available as a Dream World move, and can be paired with Hidden Power Fighting if you desire coverage for Chandelure, but is otherwise underwhelming. Solarbeam is a more powerful alternative to Energy Ball, but Tyranitar, Politoed, and Hippowdon are all very important targets, and, if they switch in while Ninetales starts to Solarbeam, it will be trapped for a turn and possibly OHKOed by any of them. Though Solarbeam is useful once the enemy weather inducer is eliminated, this often doesn't happen until late in the match, and is all the more difficult to achieve without Energy Ball.</p>

<p>Other setup moves are available to Ninetales as well, though they have limited use. Nitro Charge is surprising on Life Orb sets and allows Ninetales to beat Deoxys-S, preventing it from laying more than one layer of Spikes on the field. However, many of the speedy switch-ins to Ninetales are Dragons, which Ninetales would have probably been better off maiming with Fire Blast on the switch. Calm Mind is an option as well, but Ninetales is easy to threaten out physically and many of the problems of the Nasty Plot set are only magnified. Protect can be useful for accumulating burn damage, but also gives weather inducers the free chance to switch out to weather abusers, leaving Ninetales on the field against a sweeper with the wrong weather up.</p>

<p>A Modest nature on the offensive sets offers more power, helping to counter other weather inducers and beat stall, but no longer outspeeding Excadrill is a massive problem. Ninetales can OHKO Excadrill even with uninvested Flamethrower in the sunshine, so compromising its ability to revenge one of the most prominent threats of the metagame is rarely worth the benefits of any other nature.</p>

<p>Ninetales could theoretically take advantage of a Choice Scarf, but it already outspeeds most of the other weather inducers that love to switch into it, and without a Life Orb or Choice Specs Ninetales would have trouble damaging the common speedy Dragon switch-ins. An Air Balloon to avoid Earthquakes for switching could be useful, but many Earthquaking Pokemon might opt instead to use Stone Edge and obliterate Ninetales. This option is more palatable if Ninetales is supported by Pokemon weak to Ground, especially Wish Jirachi, or if you especially fear being trapped by Dugtrio.</p>

[Checks and Counters]

<p>Blissey and Eviolite Chansey wall Ninetales pretty well, and specially-bulky Watertypes such as Jellicent and especially Tentacruel will cause massive problems even in the sun. All of these Pokemon will have problems dealing with Nasty Plot, so if they are specifically troublesome that may be a set to consider. Thick Fat Snorlax is also an issue but very much dislikes being burned by Will-O-Wisp, though Ninetales itself very much dislikes taking Earthquakes from Snorlax, sometimes being 2HKOed by aggressive sets such as Choice Band even if Snorlax is burned first.</p>

<p>Sadly for Ninetales, enemy weather inducers tend to be very good counters to it as well. With the weather turned in their favor, Tyranitar and Politoed will take relatively low damage even from Energy Ball or Hidden Power Fighting and can easily OHKO in return. Physically-bulky Hippowdon designed to take on Excadrill is a much shakier counter, but specially-defensive versions may be able to come in and wall Ninetales with Slack Off or KO back with Earthquake if they are in good health.</p>

<p>Faster Dragons attempting to counter Ninetales must be wary of the power of Drought Fire Blast, which can do moderate damage through resistances even to threats such as Choice Scarf Garchomp and Choice Specs Latios. Defensive Latias can mostly shrug this off however and makes a strong counter. Flash Fire users such as Heatran and Chandelure must be handled by Ninetales with care, as allowing them to unleash the power of a Flash Fire Drought STAB Fire Blast is a scary prospect indeed. Most versions of Ninetales carry Will-O-Wisp, so Wobbuffet should not attempt to trap it unless Ninetales is Choiced, and even then must be wary of the intensity of Ninetales's Fire STAB in sunlight. Dugtrio can trap and eliminate almost any Ninetales easily in revenge or if it comes in on a Hidden Power, and it's only foiled by Air Balloon or Choice Scarf versions.</p>
 

Flora

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Just wondering, did you implement BL's check here: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3422503&postcount=50 ?

Anyway, there's still some stuff I don't like in this analysis (and I was already checking it before actually, just forgot to post), so placeholder etc (will do that after the check is implemented).

edit: well, my time is severely limited but I really want to check this. I'll try Friday-Sunday with a new post.

edit: I'm sorry, I can't check it. I trust Zy's and BL's checks are good enough.
 
Just thought to check this since I've been running 248HP on all my Tales sets for ages - I'd advise for the first set to run 248 HP over 252 as it gives you odd HP so you can switch into SR one more time (or Sub one more I think if running that variant). Whilst not critically important, it's worth doing imo. I know it's marked Done though, so unsure if this can be done, but thought I should bring it up.

Also, off topic, drop me a PM when you wanna carry on the sun article Zdrup :).
 
^Doesn't that only matter if the HP is divisible by 4?

Anyways, I think that a closer look at Ninetales's physical bulk is warranted. The way it is now, 252 HP is invested without much explanation. Normally, HP investment is intended to maximize overall defenses efficiently, but when you're dumping the leftover EVs into SpD, that goal is contradicted. There's an obvious attempt to induce a bias toward SpD, but I'm not sure if you're even aware of how big or small said bias is, or how big or small it should be. What damage calculations from physical attacks are stopping me from putting more EVs into SpD rather than HP, or even switching the two entirely? Or perhaps more physical bulk is needed?
 
I'm actually not sure as to how rounding in pokemon works now I think about it, I just assumed that even HP = one less SR switch in on things weak to it. If not then feel free to disregard me (and I'll go and change all my Fire mons EVs...), but it'd probably be worth checking if noone here knows for sure.

Presumably the logic behind investing in SpD is that Tales typically uses WoW on all of its defensive sets, making walling things on that side easy without investment. The other reason I could think of is to ensure you don't get beaten by Tran when using Sub+HP Fight, but I'm unsure as to if this is actually necessary. Could definitely do with a short mention at least though, since Toxic is slashed over WoW.
 

prem

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although this is done, can i suggest that on the specs set solarbeam gets a slash with flamethrower, if only because not all teams run weather, and once you win the weather war ninetails can use solarbeam. also you can fake people out by using solar beam once, and then use eneregy ball next time. this only works if you predict they dont switch to politoed instantly when they see ninetails though. just a thought
 
Overheat is good in combination with Power Swap. My special sweepers get crippled by this, as it takes my boosts and gives me -2 Spatk
 
Disable should probably get a mention somewhere. It's pretty useful with 100% accuracy now and Ninetales' decent speed. For example, you can protect on Tyranitar to scout and Disable its Stone Edge. Now you can switch into it much easier.

It's not the most useful move in the world, but given that the first set has a bunch of "we got nothing better to put here" moves, I think it could get a mention there, even if only in Additional Comments. Or maybe just leave it for Optional Changes, but it should be mentioned. It's certainly a lot better than Psyshock.
 
Disable should probably get a mention somewhere. It's pretty useful with 100% accuracy now and Ninetales' decent speed. For example, you can protect on Tyranitar to scout and Disable its Stone Edge. Now you can switch into it much easier.

It's not the most useful move in the world, but given that the first set has a bunch of "we got nothing better to put here" moves, I think it could get a mention there, even if only in Additional Comments. Or maybe just leave it for Optional Changes, but it should be mentioned. It's certainly a lot better than Psyshock.
True dat. Disable has become a giant threat in Gen V recently. I have been crippled out of a Specs Draco Meteor and a Banded Hammer Arm.
 
So, i have a different set for Ninetales, for a quite defensive one:

Ninetales @ Leftovers/Chesto Berry
Drought - Timid
196 HP / 48 Sp. Atk / 104 Sp. Def / 160 Speed
- Flamethrower
- Will-o-Wisp/Toxic
- Protect/Rest
- Roar

196 HP to hit a Leftovers number, so if you're using lefties, that's the EV to go. 48 Sp. Atk to OHKO Excadrill and Ferrothorn with Flamethrower. Protect for Leftovers, Rest for Chesto Berry. Roar so you won't let any Dragon set up on you. Will-o-Wisp to cripple physical attackers, which are a pain for Ninetales, specially Ttar, i'd only recommend Toxic if you run Psycho Shift Sigilyph in your team, otherwise stick to Will-o-Wisp and get a Chansey/Blissey for the Toxic. Roar is also the best tool to don't be ruined by Heatran, which is a huge pain to most Sun teams. You can always run Overheat+Power Swap instead of Flamethrower+Status move, i didn't run the calcs but the Sp. Atk investment would certainly be smaller.
 
just wondering this is very situational, but what if you used a power herb on ninetails, so when they switch in there weather changer, there nailed by solarbeam, you then have the advantage, to bring back the sun permantly lately, all though if power herb doesn't work like that, sorry for my suggestion.
 
Solarbeam has a weak 60 Base Power in other weather than sun, and even Energy Ball will do more damage. So it isn't usually worth the item slot.
 
I think it definitely needs SolarBeam, at least as an option. Not every team uses Tyranitar or Politoed (and Hippowdon is now completely outclassed; I haven't seen it in a Gen V battle yet) and I've been swept by Ninetales solely for the fact that they took a chance nd used SolarBeam over Energy Ball. SolarBeam needs a mention.
 
Is it worth mentioning a sub-disable set?

Ninetales @Leftovers
Calm/Timid // Drought
252 HP / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
~Flamethrower/Will-o-Wisp
~Substitute
~Protect
~Disable

Really good at wearing down opposing weather-setters with hazards support as Protect+Disable causes alot of switches
 
I've tried SolarBeam and I have to say it was nothing but disappointing. Many of the Pokemon you want to hit with a Grass move most are also the ones that SolarBeam is completely worthless against. It already has a mention in Other Options, which is honestly about all it deserves.

As for Disable, I'm not sold on that particular set (Sub and Protect is kinda redundant, and you give up any semblance of coverage), but Disable probably deserves a mention in Other Options. It's not perfect, but if nothing else it makes switching to your next Pokemon that much easier. If only she had Gengar's immunities...
 
I agree that the move disable can be useful. In particular this set (with the first set's build)-

-Flamethower
-WoW/Toxic
-Protect
-Disable

What this set does is protect Ninetails from Tyranitar by scouting them and lets you worry less about switching into a Specs Hydro Pump from Politoed. Using sub over protect forces you to lose 25% of your health just to scout the opponents move and does not gain priority, meaning against a ScarfTar you have to risk being pursued. Choice users in general hate this set.
 
So ninetails is used for perma-sun... But compared to the other perma-weather pokemon it loses every fight. So what that leaves is a poke that switches in and promptly switches out before their weatherer comes in. My ninetails acts as a support and a lure, but is my main counter for pokemon usually associated with rain and sand teams respectively. My pool is Overheat, Will 'O Wisp, Extrasensory (for neutral damage on all but Heatran / Houndoom, Victini, zen-mode Gorilla-thing) or Roar, and Hex. With Roar i run a scarf, and stealth rocks loves that gimmick.

Charizard is my Special Sweeper, Ninetails phazer status support thing, Lickilicky / Starmie weather checks, Espeon as a lead / Swift Swim Kabutops to spin and Aqua Jet, not set on any Chlorophyl user yet but basically it has both Solar Beam and Energy Ball to play mind games, and finally was thinking about a volt return / stealth rock fortress to finish the scarf-roar ninetails combo.
 

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