ok so people seem to be misinterpreting my mass tie vote. we can assume there's at least half politicians, and let's assume each scum is equal sized. Worst case scenario is 6/3/3 faction splits. We have two of the Lizards on one person, we can lynch both of them later. we have all three Crabs on different people, we can lynch them with care. we'd have two or one politician lynches, we're down to six or seven players, in which we end up with a decimated town if and only if ALL of the lynches hit politicians. however, if we can land even half on scum, we get to 3/2/1. this is in WORST case scenario. (2L, 1L1C, 1C1P, 1C1P, 2P, 2P / 2L, 1L1P, 1C1P, 1C1P, 1C1P, 2P)
however, in all likelihood the Lizards get split up, there's three, maybe four lynches, and the Lizards and Crabs are exposed. looking at a 6/3/3 lynch, there's way too much variability. Lizards can gather together on the 6, make a clean get away. Crabs can scatter all three across all lynches, essentially just confirming they exist. Politicians become essentially irrelevant, just the masses in which the scum hide in. or the lizards spread out, making them simply existent, crabs consolidate two on the 6, hiding in plain sight because the politicians lynched the 6 just before. there's so much to go wrong, and not all that much that goes right.