obi
formerly david stone
When a Pokemon is hit by a Sleep move, it gets 1-4 "fast asleep" messages and prior to waking up. This means that you have a 0% chance to wake up on the first turn of sleep, a 1/4 chance to wake up on the second turn of sleep, a 1/3 chance to wake up on the third turn of sleep, a 1/2 chance to wake up on the fourth turn of sleep, and a 100% chance to wake up on the fifth turn. I will consider the strategy for when to use Sleep Talk in a few cases. This analysis does not consider issues of PP, as that becomes too complex and mostly irrelevant.
The first case is when a Pokemon is put to sleep with the following move set: Rest, Sleep Talk, superior move, inferior move.
Superior move is the move the Pokemon would select if it were awake, essentially. Inferior move is the move that is better than no move, but worse than the superior move.
The first turn it's obviously best to Sleep Talk as you have a 0% chance to wake up, so you only have a 1/3 chance to do nothing (as opposed to a 100% chance if you select any move but Sleep Talk). If you are faster, this is the first after you are put to sleep. If you are slower, this is the turn they are putting you to sleep.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up. Selecting Sleep Talk therefore has a 50% chance to fail to do anything useful (wake up or select Rest). You have a 1/4 chance to select your superior move and a 1/4 chance to select your inferior move. Compare this to selecting the superior move outright, which has a 1/4 chance to use your superior move and a 3/4 chance to do nothing. Sleep Talk here is clearly superior, as it replaces a chunk (25% of the total) of "do nothing" with "use inferior move", which is still an improvement.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 5/9 (55.6%) chance to do nothing. You have a 2/9 chance to select your best move and a 2/9 chance to select the inferior move. Compare this with selecting the superior move, which has a 1/3 chance to use your best move and a 2/3 chance to do nothing. Here, you will use your superior move an extra 1/9 of the time, but you will also fail to do anything an extra 1/9 of the time. If your superior move is less than twice as good as your inferior move, use Sleep Talk. If your superior move is more than twice as good as your inferior move, use the superior move. For instance, if the two moves are Return and Brick Break against Tyranitar, Brick Break is such a superior choice that it is better to use Brick Break than Sleep Talk.
The fourth turn, there is a 1/2 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 2/3 chance to do nothing, a 1/6 chance to select the superior move, and a 1/6 chance to select the inferior move. If you select the superior move outright, you have a 1/2 chance to select the most useful move (compared with Sleep Talk's 1/3 chance to select any useful move at all), making selecting the superior move a clear winner.
You clearly should use a move other than Sleep Talk on the turn you'll be waking up, the fifth turn.
The other somewhat common scenario is a Pokemon with 3 useful moves and Sleep Talk (so no Rest). This helps out Sleep Talk a bit. Let's assume the move set is Sleep Talk, superior move, average move, inferior move.
The first turn you use Sleep Talk for the same reason as in the last example.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up, a 1/4 chance to select the superior move, 1/4 chance to select the average move, and 1/4 chance to select the inferior move. Using the superior move outright is a 1/4 chance to select the superior move. This is another clear win for Sleep Talk.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up and a 2/9 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives a 1/3 chance to use the superior move. As before, you have an extra 1/9 chance to use your best move, but this time, you have a 1/3 extra chance to do nothing. Here, you have twice the chance to at least do a move by using Sleep Talk, but the move you use will be slightly less powerful. This is again a battle-specific judgment, but it is a little better for Sleep Talk than the previous example.
The fourth turn, you have a 1/2 chance to wake up and a 1/6 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives you a 1/2 chance to use the superior move. By comparison, Sleep Talk gives you a 1/2 chance to select any move at all, so using the superior move is better.
The fifth turn, you should clearly use the superior move because you're certainly waking up.
In both of these cases, Sleep Talk is the dominant strategy for turns 1 and 2, while the superior move is the dominant strategy for turns 4 and 5. The third turn of sleep has the best strategy depend on battle conditions.
There is another interesting case, however. What happens when the Pokemon using Sleep Talk is something like Rest, Sleep Talk, Thunderbolt, Will-O-Wisp Rotom-A, and the opponent is Heatran? Then, Thunderbolt is the good move, Rest is the useless move, and Will-O-Wisp is the bad move, actually worse than doing nothing.
The first turn, Sleep Talk gives a 1/3 chance to make things worse than doing nothing, a 1/3 chance to do nothing, and a 1/3 chance to make things better. If the good move is a greater good than the bad move is bad, then Sleep Talk is the winner. If the bad move is worse than the good move is good, then anything but Sleep Talk is equally good.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up. Selecting Sleep Talk therefore has a 50% chance to fail to do anything useful (wake up or select Rest). You have a 1/4 chance to select your good move and a 1/4 chance to select your bad move. Compare this to selecting the good move outright, which has a 1/4 chance to use your good move and a 3/4 chance to do nothing. Therefore, selecting your good move dominates selecting Sleep Talk, as they have the same probability of good payout, but the good move replaces the bad payout of Sleep Talk with a neutral payout.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 5/9 (55.6%) chance to do nothing. You have a 2/9 chance to select your good move and a 2/9 chance to select the bad move. Compare this with selecting the superior move, which has a 1/3 chance to use your best move and a 2/3 chance to do nothing. Selecting the good move is the best option. You have better odds of the good move being used, and zero odds of the bad move being used.
The fourth turn, there is a 1/2 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 2/3 chance to do nothing, a 1/6 chance to select the good move, and a 1/6 chance to select the bad move. If you select the superior move outright, you have a 1/2 chance to select the good move, making selecting the superior move a clear winner.
You clearly should use the good move Sleep Talk on the turn you'll be waking up, the fifth turn.
If one of your moves is better than doing nothing, and one of your moves is worse than doing nothing, you should select the good move in every turn but the first turn. On the first turn, you select Sleep Talk if the good move is a greater good, and you select the good move if the bad move is a greater bad. If the good payout is just as good as the bad payout is bad, Sleep Talk is as good as selecting Rest on any turn.
Another option is that you have Sleep Talk, superior move, inferior move, bad move.
If you select Sleep Talk turn 1, you have 2/3 chance of positive payout and 1/3 chance of negative payout. Which move is the smart choice (the superior move or Sleep Talk) depends on the relative values. If the benefit from the superior move + the benefit from the inferior move is greater than the loss from the bad move, use Sleep Talk. If the reverse is true, use the superior move.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up, a 1/4 chance to select the superior move, 1/4 chance to select the inferior move, and 1/4 chance to select the bad move. Using the superior move outright is a 1/4 chance to select the superior move. If the bad move is worse than the inferior move is good, then selecting the superior move is the winning choice. If the reverse is true, Sleep Talk wins.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up and a 2/9 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives a 1/3 chance to use the superior move. This is yet another battle-specific judgment call.
The fourth turn, you have a 1/2 chance to wake up and a 1/6 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives you a 1/2 chance to use the superior move. By comparison, Sleep Talk gives you a 1/3 chance to select any good move at all, with the added loss of a 1/6 chance of being worse than doing nothing, so using the superior move is better.
The fifth turn, you should clearly use the superior move because you're certainly waking up.
If you have two moves that are better than nothing and one move that is worse than doing nothing, turns 1, 2, and 3 are all judgment calls based on battle conditions, while turns 4 and 5 should always be dealt with by using the superior move.
The final cases are those in which it is (almost) never wise to Sleep Talk. For instance, if you have Sleep Talk, a good move, and two bad moves, this is worse in every situation for Sleep Talk compared with two good moves and a bad move. In this situation, the only time you might Sleep Talk is on the very first turn, but the good move has to be as good as both bad moves combined are bad. After that, it is always better to select the superior move.
To determine when to use Sleep Talk while Resting, that is the same as doing turn 1 twice (0% chance to wake up) followed by turn 5 (100% chance to wake up).
The first case is when a Pokemon is put to sleep with the following move set: Rest, Sleep Talk, superior move, inferior move.
Superior move is the move the Pokemon would select if it were awake, essentially. Inferior move is the move that is better than no move, but worse than the superior move.
The first turn it's obviously best to Sleep Talk as you have a 0% chance to wake up, so you only have a 1/3 chance to do nothing (as opposed to a 100% chance if you select any move but Sleep Talk). If you are faster, this is the first after you are put to sleep. If you are slower, this is the turn they are putting you to sleep.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up. Selecting Sleep Talk therefore has a 50% chance to fail to do anything useful (wake up or select Rest). You have a 1/4 chance to select your superior move and a 1/4 chance to select your inferior move. Compare this to selecting the superior move outright, which has a 1/4 chance to use your superior move and a 3/4 chance to do nothing. Sleep Talk here is clearly superior, as it replaces a chunk (25% of the total) of "do nothing" with "use inferior move", which is still an improvement.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 5/9 (55.6%) chance to do nothing. You have a 2/9 chance to select your best move and a 2/9 chance to select the inferior move. Compare this with selecting the superior move, which has a 1/3 chance to use your best move and a 2/3 chance to do nothing. Here, you will use your superior move an extra 1/9 of the time, but you will also fail to do anything an extra 1/9 of the time. If your superior move is less than twice as good as your inferior move, use Sleep Talk. If your superior move is more than twice as good as your inferior move, use the superior move. For instance, if the two moves are Return and Brick Break against Tyranitar, Brick Break is such a superior choice that it is better to use Brick Break than Sleep Talk.
The fourth turn, there is a 1/2 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 2/3 chance to do nothing, a 1/6 chance to select the superior move, and a 1/6 chance to select the inferior move. If you select the superior move outright, you have a 1/2 chance to select the most useful move (compared with Sleep Talk's 1/3 chance to select any useful move at all), making selecting the superior move a clear winner.
You clearly should use a move other than Sleep Talk on the turn you'll be waking up, the fifth turn.
The other somewhat common scenario is a Pokemon with 3 useful moves and Sleep Talk (so no Rest). This helps out Sleep Talk a bit. Let's assume the move set is Sleep Talk, superior move, average move, inferior move.
The first turn you use Sleep Talk for the same reason as in the last example.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up, a 1/4 chance to select the superior move, 1/4 chance to select the average move, and 1/4 chance to select the inferior move. Using the superior move outright is a 1/4 chance to select the superior move. This is another clear win for Sleep Talk.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up and a 2/9 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives a 1/3 chance to use the superior move. As before, you have an extra 1/9 chance to use your best move, but this time, you have a 1/3 extra chance to do nothing. Here, you have twice the chance to at least do a move by using Sleep Talk, but the move you use will be slightly less powerful. This is again a battle-specific judgment, but it is a little better for Sleep Talk than the previous example.
The fourth turn, you have a 1/2 chance to wake up and a 1/6 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives you a 1/2 chance to use the superior move. By comparison, Sleep Talk gives you a 1/2 chance to select any move at all, so using the superior move is better.
The fifth turn, you should clearly use the superior move because you're certainly waking up.
In both of these cases, Sleep Talk is the dominant strategy for turns 1 and 2, while the superior move is the dominant strategy for turns 4 and 5. The third turn of sleep has the best strategy depend on battle conditions.
There is another interesting case, however. What happens when the Pokemon using Sleep Talk is something like Rest, Sleep Talk, Thunderbolt, Will-O-Wisp Rotom-A, and the opponent is Heatran? Then, Thunderbolt is the good move, Rest is the useless move, and Will-O-Wisp is the bad move, actually worse than doing nothing.
The first turn, Sleep Talk gives a 1/3 chance to make things worse than doing nothing, a 1/3 chance to do nothing, and a 1/3 chance to make things better. If the good move is a greater good than the bad move is bad, then Sleep Talk is the winner. If the bad move is worse than the good move is good, then anything but Sleep Talk is equally good.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up. Selecting Sleep Talk therefore has a 50% chance to fail to do anything useful (wake up or select Rest). You have a 1/4 chance to select your good move and a 1/4 chance to select your bad move. Compare this to selecting the good move outright, which has a 1/4 chance to use your good move and a 3/4 chance to do nothing. Therefore, selecting your good move dominates selecting Sleep Talk, as they have the same probability of good payout, but the good move replaces the bad payout of Sleep Talk with a neutral payout.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 5/9 (55.6%) chance to do nothing. You have a 2/9 chance to select your good move and a 2/9 chance to select the bad move. Compare this with selecting the superior move, which has a 1/3 chance to use your best move and a 2/3 chance to do nothing. Selecting the good move is the best option. You have better odds of the good move being used, and zero odds of the bad move being used.
The fourth turn, there is a 1/2 chance to wake up. Using Sleep Talk therefore has a 2/3 chance to do nothing, a 1/6 chance to select the good move, and a 1/6 chance to select the bad move. If you select the superior move outright, you have a 1/2 chance to select the good move, making selecting the superior move a clear winner.
You clearly should use the good move Sleep Talk on the turn you'll be waking up, the fifth turn.
If one of your moves is better than doing nothing, and one of your moves is worse than doing nothing, you should select the good move in every turn but the first turn. On the first turn, you select Sleep Talk if the good move is a greater good, and you select the good move if the bad move is a greater bad. If the good payout is just as good as the bad payout is bad, Sleep Talk is as good as selecting Rest on any turn.
Another option is that you have Sleep Talk, superior move, inferior move, bad move.
If you select Sleep Talk turn 1, you have 2/3 chance of positive payout and 1/3 chance of negative payout. Which move is the smart choice (the superior move or Sleep Talk) depends on the relative values. If the benefit from the superior move + the benefit from the inferior move is greater than the loss from the bad move, use Sleep Talk. If the reverse is true, use the superior move.
The second turn, you have a 1/4 chance to wake up, a 1/4 chance to select the superior move, 1/4 chance to select the inferior move, and 1/4 chance to select the bad move. Using the superior move outright is a 1/4 chance to select the superior move. If the bad move is worse than the inferior move is good, then selecting the superior move is the winning choice. If the reverse is true, Sleep Talk wins.
The third turn, you have a 1/3 chance to wake up and a 2/9 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives a 1/3 chance to use the superior move. This is yet another battle-specific judgment call.
The fourth turn, you have a 1/2 chance to wake up and a 1/6 chance to select each move. Using the best move gives you a 1/2 chance to use the superior move. By comparison, Sleep Talk gives you a 1/3 chance to select any good move at all, with the added loss of a 1/6 chance of being worse than doing nothing, so using the superior move is better.
The fifth turn, you should clearly use the superior move because you're certainly waking up.
If you have two moves that are better than nothing and one move that is worse than doing nothing, turns 1, 2, and 3 are all judgment calls based on battle conditions, while turns 4 and 5 should always be dealt with by using the superior move.
The final cases are those in which it is (almost) never wise to Sleep Talk. For instance, if you have Sleep Talk, a good move, and two bad moves, this is worse in every situation for Sleep Talk compared with two good moves and a bad move. In this situation, the only time you might Sleep Talk is on the very first turn, but the good move has to be as good as both bad moves combined are bad. After that, it is always better to select the superior move.
To determine when to use Sleep Talk while Resting, that is the same as doing turn 1 twice (0% chance to wake up) followed by turn 5 (100% chance to wake up).